The victory of Governor Godwin Obaseki can be traced to 10 factors, some of which are listed below :
1. The tough independent spirit of Edo people frowns at tendencies to muzzle, impose or dictate leadership choices to them. Edo has a long rich history of political and cultural successes, making the state mostly hostile to godfatherism.
2. The Collapse of APC structure: The APC structure at all levels in the state collapsed and largely fused into the Peoples Democratic Party. Up till the election time, the APC structures in the state was still reeling from confusion and dissension.
3. The Oshiomole Factor: A major factor is the image and conduct of Adams Oshiomole. His attempt to play godfather’s role swung many undecided voters against the APC;
4. The Choice of Ize-Iyamu: The selection of Iyamu as APC flagbearer was seen by many Edo voters as an insult on their sensibilities. Considering all what the APC had said about Iyamu, turning round to present and market him for governorship was too much a disrespect for an average Edo man.
5. The Obaseki Factor: The PDP candidate is a product of two schools namely the Oshiomole rugged class and the Wike street clique. Combined with his inheritance of Edo PDP caucus, his machinery was indeed formidable. Added to this was his governance records considered largely good and his smart campaign strategies, adjudged to be street wise.
6. The APC National Crisis: The battle within APC at the national level played out squarely on ground. The party is already split into two flowing from the last crisis that saw the exit of Oshiomole as the party’s national chairman. Defeating APC is part of defeating Oshiomole’s group ahead of the party’s forthcoming national convention. By extension , Edo is a test case for the 2023 presidential battle. The loss of Edo is a major set back for Bola Tinubu’s presidential aspiration.
7. The Tinubu broadcast: If there is a factor that further enhanced Obaseki’s victory, it was the video broadcast by the party’s national leader, Bola Tinubu. The message from Lagos reinforced the narrative on ground of a plot to transform Edo to Lagos model. The ill advised clip provided strong campaign ammunition to the PDP.
8. South South PDP Coalition: A huge factor not considered is the strong coalition of PDP across South West. Of all the South South States , all were PDP except Edo. The defection of Obaseki to PDP changed the scenario, making South South a wholly PDP zone. The South South governors deeply mobilised for Obaseki.
9. The People of Edo state: The determination of Edo people to determine on their own who govern them is a major factor. The staunch and resolute posture of voters who streamed out to vote is a key factor in Obaseki’s victory. Hence, the slogan in town is “Edo no be Lagos”
10. Lastly, the message , ” tamper with whoever tamper with your votes” across the state went a long way to enforce a free and fair poll. The units, wards and LGAs were stoically manned; the readiness and the threat to summarily execute ( so to say) election riggers keep thugs and other dare devils at bay.